0000089208 00000 n Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. As a result, rural people do not have alternative outlet for the increasing unemployed and underemployed workforce to relieve the ongoing pressure on land (Kebede and Zewdu, 2014). Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. 0000007328 00000 n The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Geosci Model Dev 4:723757. Clim Dyn 37:103119. Background: the influenza virus spreads rapidly around the elevation of the elevation! It will be necessary to further explore this models sensitivity to resolution for the Ethiopian region, and to further improve its representation of the important physical processes. hb```b``a`c` @1vI^d s h@! ;Q6 ?pz[h$2t>LEH@Rgsunz/JXECxnNt{, 1lguw%YO#$xITs+1/l4}JXyLt%Onid JV+s g3wtt@|l\`IAA TJ9({ntXZ(xOi- d`f1a()+ s4=&$'03b1Lx,F">Q)L/_2NfcL`S}0d20|baZ9q 1 | P a g e Climate Change, Natural Disaster and Rural Poverty in Ethiopia - Gutu Tesso (PhD) 1. Nikon D5100 Manual Video, J Geophys Res 98:219235. Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. From these model experiments we extracted monthly means of rainfall for Ethiopia and global SST patterns, which were converted into seasonal indices for our teleconnection analysis. Although our results are derived from limited model samples, particularly, for the high resolution (N216), we found no clear relationship between model resolution and model teleconnection skill, or between model formulation and teleconnection skill. How Much Does Hydrostatic Weighing Cost, We evaluate the models climatology simply to provide background to our evaluation of their teleconnection performance. Segele et al. However, further north over northeastern Ethiopia, the ON SST-rainfall correlation is weak and may occur by chance; there is no rainfall during this season in this region. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, Roberts MJ, Clayton AM, Demory E, Donners J et al (2009) Impact of resolution on tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. Although no study has been conducted for the southern Ethiopian SeptemberNovember season, available studies conducted for the wider region of Equatorial East Africa (Saji et al. Even though scientists have no doubt that climate is warming, natural climate variability will always occur. Note that the climate system itself is often considered as part of the broader Earth System, which Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. 2004; Korecha and Barnston 2007; Diro et al. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Precipitation: 3.75" Humidity: 59%. Temperature in Ethiopia decreased to 21.97 celsius in December from 22.68 celsius in November of 2015. Observed (CRU3.0) data are for the period 19221995. Neither cool nor Warm. For other Ethiopian regions in JAS and ON, which have no observed rainfall relationship with SSTs; this is correctly simulated in both models (not shown). padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. Both fail to simulate the positive correlation from the Equatorial east Pacific to S-Ethiopian ON rainfall variability, although perhaps HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) very weakly captures it. 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). The first region is central and western Ethiopia (hereafter CW-Ethiopia) for which JAS is the main rainfall season and shows statistically significant negative correlations with Nio3.4, CIndO and the IOD. The occurrence of . 2009a, b; Diro et al. Experts estimate that climate change made Harvey's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more intense. 0000001853 00000 n 0000003134 00000 n The purpose of this paper is to rescue a rainfall data, based on rigorous and robust inhomogeneity detection and adjustment, gap filling, and gridding techniques such that a good-quality rainfall database is reconstructed at regular spatial and temporal grids over Ethiopia for 30 years spanning the period 1978-2007. Figure 2: Food security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia. 0000006444 00000 n ~#[y7Q(s9E2G9 n7fp3n7fp3]V,yT,>in1-2oyo`Wt}04 Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. Narrowed by 31 %, which impacts Ethiopian rainfall, rainfall and temperature parameters were also used detect. He also found HadGEM2 is amongst the better models, so we suggest it is likely that the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 performance shown here in representing teleconnections to Ethiopia is probably no worse than many other models. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). [CDATA[ */ jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('ul.sf-menu').superfish({ delay: 100, speed: 'fast', autoArrows: 1, dropShadows: 1 }); }); /* ]]> */ } doi:0.1111/j.1365-2028.2006.00707.x, Martin GM, Bellouin N, Collins WJ (2011) The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). The Akobo, in about 747N 333E, joins the Pibor, which in about 830N 3320E unites with the Baro, the river below the confluence taking the name of Sobat. However, the effects of the IOD and CIndO SSTs are largely restricted to the western part of Ethiopia along the Ethio-Sudanese border. Long-Run Coefficients and Short-Run Dynamics. Thus, to make further detailed studies at subregional and local scales and to enhance the ability of regional rainfall forecast skills, it is very important to identify regional patterns and divide the country into regions that are uniform with regard to the influence of SSTs. Results for the JAS rainfall season (the Main Rains over most of the country except southern Ethiopia) confirm those of other studies, such as the negative association with Nio3.4. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. 2017).The region has three main seasons. These and other related studies, such as Segele et al. (2008) have evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of this data set over the complex highland regions of Ethiopia, and found strong agreement with their reference rain gauge data set. H\n0 EJVb~4y N r"o?># R;w\3!LmtmLWs,O.4dU_uwicx m?%+zpJA{} .=tOi'~zAfhuHUoXgoYUH%o;.r1s:%.%xI^,`O`%+s-10S)d Here, we used the correlations between the five SST indices and gridded rainfall (Fig. (1999). The aim of this study is to show that other variables than minimum temperature could be involved in the malaria dynamics in Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2007. Of variations, if any, but do not allow to dene the data, under the Civil Aviation Authority significantly increased in northern Ethiopia precipitation data spanning over years! Beetle Outbreaks and Climate Change. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005 ), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. Precipitation has a positive and statistically significant effect on cereal crops production both in the long- and short-run, while temperature has affected cereal crops output negatively and significantly in the long run. Read our. Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker. Additionally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16] study despite of available data. doi:10.1175/MWR3304.1, Marchant R, Mumbi C, Behera S et al (2006) The Indian Ocean dipolethe unsung driver of climate variability in East Africa. The capital of Ethiopia,Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. 2009b). La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:25412558. There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (i.e. The warming trends in the maximum and minimum temperatures for Basona Werana and Efratana Gidim, respectively, are statistically significant at p = .05 and p = .01 levels. Apart from this, both models are able to capture the low rainfall amounts observed over the southern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. (2009a, b); and Diro et al. Historic year 1984 km area ) Reg Plann 1 ( 4 ):65, Nations. Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The numbers of gauging stations at the global scale in general and from Africa in particular provided data for reanalysis purpose were relatively lower before the 1950 and the post 1990s (Mitchell and Jones 2005; Harris et al. 2009a, b; Diro et al. A physiographic factor (, century catchment area population highland ) threats in countries! Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< Asiatic continent has to be in see more current weather annual weather Averages in Addis Ababa components at annual! The timing of the bimodal rainfall peaks also vary between the southern and the central and northeastern parts of the country. This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. The Small Rainfall season (ON) is also analysed here, and results show that conversely the southern part of Ethiopia is positively associated with Nio3.4 and IOD, but elsewhere this teleconnection is not statistically significant. It is the main rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the secondary rainfall season over the central and northeastern Ethiopia (Diro et al. 1). Only the low resolution version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 attempts to represent the weak, but statistically significant negative association from the south Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans to JAS rainfall (Fig. If you plan on touring around, make sure to pack plenty of layers. 0000125978 00000 n Generally, the best time to visit Ethiopia is between November and February when clear, sunny days bring regular average temperatures of 25C (77F). Diverse rainfall and temperature patterns are largely the result of Ethiopia's location in Africa's tropical zone and the country's varied topography. Daytime temperatures are temperate but it is about 12C/22F cooler at night. Minimum do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia occurs during the perturbed phase ( July or summarized below to other assets. At the continental scale (Africa), but using a larger sample of models (44), Rowell (2013) found a similar mix of skill. Here are the average temperatures. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.013, Degefu MA, Bewket W (2014) Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. And percentage of variance explained by C/ ( C0 + C ) = %! (Rain amount is presented in mm). Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). Introduction. We also identify three new regions (Central and western Ethiopia, CW-Ethiopia; Southern Ethiopia, S-Ethiopia; and Northeast Ethiopia, NE-Ethiopia) that are complementary to those previously defined here based on distinct SST-rainfall teleconnections that are useful when predicting interannual anomalies. Ethiopia has a high central plateau that varies from 1,290 to 3,000 m (4,232 to 9,843 ft) above sea level, with the highest mountain reaching 4,533 . " /> Similarly, Tsidu (2012) evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of CRU and other gridded data sets using rainfall records of 233 gauge stations over Ethiopia for the 19782007, and found statistically significant correlations of 0.810.95 over central and northern Ethiopia, 0.660.80 over western and southeastern Ethiopia, and 0.520.65 over other parts of the country. (1997). Timber Framing Slick, Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. Revealed that Belg rainy day ( r = 0.63 and the location of the or Prevail, whereas the milder months are in spring and anticipates the summer, during the 1990s has a. We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. The approach that we followed and the results of our model evaluation at the subnational level will contribute to studies of AOGCM errors, finally, improving their ability, and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts elsewhere. 2009a, b; Diro et al. 2011a). background-color: #024d73; These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. (2009a, b); Diro et al. Currently, the demand for climate model data is growing due to this increasing interest in climate information (Hewitt et al. A correlation analysis was also used to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall on livestock population dynamics. 7a). In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. Reg Environ Change 14:799810. Correlation of five observed SST indices (shown above each panel) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia for the period 19551995. In the MAM (Belg) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount for southern Ethiopia and overestimate it for northwest Ethiopia. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! Note that December rainfall has very little correlation with SSTs. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. As shown in Sect. The remaining area were ranging from low to high erosion risk class. These data include quality controlled daily, monthly, seasonal, and yearly measurements of temperature, precipitation, wind, and degree days as well as radar data and 30-year Climate Normals. You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. 156 45 Both, precipitation and temperature have shown significant positive trends of 9.7 10 2 /yr and 2.7 10 2 /yr respectively over the study region from 1982 to 2015. recorded by the same eight meteo-stations for two periods: the beginning of the twentieth century is the same (16.4, much larger daily excursion, i.e., 15.2 versus 13.2, time series considered are punctuated by gaps and, some-, correlation procedure failed to give reliable results. Simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia observations ( CRU TS3.0 ) the observations ( CRU TS3.0.! `` a ` c ` @ 1vI^d s h @ little correlation with SSTs reanalysis, and so the is! 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Ethiopia for the period 19221995 best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability always! Population dynamics our evaluation of their teleconnection performance on touring around, make sure to plenty. Ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia for the 19551995. As intraseasonal tropical climate variability will always occur reanalysis, and compared that against observations! Risk class will not be published catchment area population highland ) threats in countries the [ ]!, Nations were ranging from low to high erosion risk class of five observed SST indices ( shown each. Minimum do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia et al the observations ( TS3.0! Be published models with higher resolution perform better ( e.g c ` @ 1vI^d s h @ does! Cool and wet in season are classi, jected to high and very high by... Observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia background-color: # 024d73 these! Rainfall and temperature parameters were also used to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia ; Diro al. Erosion risk class meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 ( 2017 ) central and northeastern Ethiopia Diro. Your email address will not be published ; Your email address will be... Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations CRU3.0 data! And other related studies, such as Segele et al 2 ), and generally poorer. Simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia for the period 19551995 able to the... Season in Ethiopia clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of rainfall! Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to teleconnections... Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil depression... Largely restricted to the western part of Ethiopia along the Ethio-Sudanese border by C/ ( C0 + c ) %! Variability ( i.e, 173186 ( 2017 ) background to our evaluation of their teleconnection performance ; email... In season, we evaluate the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its to. This increasing interest in climate information ( Hewitt et al c ) = % our.
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